When Standard & Poor Ratings Services cut India's
outlook to negative from stable on Wednesday, it sent some shock waves
reverberating across sectors. The premier agency has cited slow progress on its
fiscal situation and deteriorating economic indicators as the primary reason
behind the revision of outlook to BBB(-). Standard & Poor stated that
India's investment and economic growth had slowed, and hence the revised
outlook for the Indian economy to negative from stable. Moreover, if the
situation doesn't improve in another two years, S&P has warned to downgrade
India's ratings. Not many would have forgotten that the same agency downgraded
the long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States from AAA to AA+,
last August. Now, it has also revised the outlooks for Infosys Limited, Tata
Consultancy Services and Wipro Limited from stable to negative. The ratings
agency, however, accorded its 'BBB+' long-term corporate credit ratings for the
three IT companies. "Our ratings on Indian information technology
companies reflect our 'BBB+' transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment
of India," S&P stated. It would serve as a warning to potential
foreign investors and domestic ones as well in equal measure, as they would
think twice before investing into government bonds and securities. On the
development, Wipro's chief financial officer Suresh Senapaty said that it was
'quite unfortunate' and that the Standard & Poor had responded earlier than
required.
Terming it as a concern for the country, he said, "Even
though there will be investments, the flow of the same may be low." What
can the Indian government do before gloom befalls it? It can reduce the fiscal
deficit, "which is about Rs.. 6 lakh crore, through, for instance, the 2G
auction, which is expected to fetch Rs.. 2 lakh crore. Or, through offering
subsidy on diesel, things will get better," says Vivek Kulkarni, former
Information Technology and Biotechnology secretary of Karnataka. The current
scenario, he points out, is certainly not recession, as one is concluded after
economic growth gets stalled for two consecutive quarters. "Our economy is
growing well at 6 per cent." If the government needs so much of money from
outside, then there might not be much for private companies to borrow, which
would hamper their growth, says Kulkarni, adding that the 15 per cent
devaluation of the rupee has helped Indian IT sector to maintain profit margins
of about the same level in dollar terms. "In terms of their recent
results, only TCS did well. Infosys's was not encouraging and Wipro conceded
the minimal growth was majorly due to its Business process outsourcing operations."
Kulkarni accuses the government for not encouraging the IT industry, as it used
to earlier. "Bangalore grew to this extent because of IT jobs. In case
there is not much government support, jobs will go down. If IT exports go up,
then rupee will become stronger." That, in his words, will help the
recovery of Indian economy, which would help it avert the downgrading of
ratings.
Source: CIOL World
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